Senate News & Analysis

Wyden Looks Safe, but Democratic Rift Is Real

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 13, 2015 · 9:39 AM EDT

Liberal groups have targeted Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden for defeat in next year’s elections unless he sides with them on upcoming trade deals. But any talk about the four-term Democrat’s vulnerability is premature until there is a challenger.

“Secretive Trade Deal Could Pose Problems At Home For Ron Wyden,”…

Report Shorts (April 3, 2015) Florida Senate, Indiana Senate, Illinois Senate, Nevada Senate

April 3, 2015 · 2:26 PM EDT

Florida Senate. Republican Sen. Marco Rubio is expected to announce his presidential campaign on April 13 in Miami. He has previously said that he would choose a run for the White House or re-election and not switch back. Rubio would have been a formidable incumbent but the open seat creates…

How Reid Reacted When a Republican Senator Was Indicted

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 3, 2015 · 9:00 AM EDT

After New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez was indicted on corruption charges Wednesday, Minority Leader Harry Reid’s reaction to his colleague’s situation wasn’t particularly surprising, but it’s not because Menendez is a fellow Democrat.

“I appreciate Senator Menendez’s willingness to temporarily step down as ranking member,” the Nevada Democrat said…

Democrats Start With Narrow Advantage in Nevada Open Seat

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 27, 2015 · 11:02 AM EDT

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid’s retirement ensures that Nevada will host a top-tier Senate race in 2016.

Reid’s announcement doesn’t expand the map for Republicans, since the Democrat was vulnerable if he had sought re-election to a sixth term. But the open seat is likely to be an expensive…

Lopach Leads March Toward Democratic Senate Majority

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 25, 2015 · 9:16 AM EDT

Smoke billowed out of Ted Kennedy’s living room fireplace as donors gathered in his D.C. home for a fundraiser, though the legendary senator was still on the Hill for votes.

But that wasn’t too much for Tom Lopach.

“I don’t know anyone, my house is on fire and my…

Indiana Senate Race Moves Out of Safe

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 24, 2015 · 12:32 PM EDT

GOP Sen. Dan Coats’ retirement creates a takeover opportunity in Indiana next year. But Democrats will likely need some breaks to move the race from a potential gain to a top tier contest.

Coats would have started the race as a clear favorite for re-election, but now that he…

Why Primaries Aren’t All Bad

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 23, 2015 · 10:04 AM EDT

Primaries can be expensive and divisive, but treating them like the plague — as party spokesmen are prone to do early every cycle — distorts electoral reality.

GOP strategists looking to hold the party’s newly attained majority are reveling in the potentially crowded field of Democrats for the open…

Report Shorts (March 20, 2015) Florida Senate, Maryland Senate, Michigan’s 11th, New Jersey Senate

March 20, 2015 · 2:27 PM EDT

Florida Senate. Democratic National Committee Chairwoman/Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz announced on Tuesday that she will seek re-election and not run for the Senate. Former GOP Governor/2014 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Charlie Crist also announced he isn’t running for the Senate either. Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy appears close to jumping in. Reps.…

Mark Kirk Starts 2016 as an Underdog

by Stuart Rothenberg March 12, 2015 · 4:58 PM EDT

Where does Illinois Republican Sen. Mark S. Kirk start in his bid for re-election? It depends on whom you ask.

The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report currently rates the 2016 race as a Tossup, while the Cook Political Report says it is a “Lean Republican” contest. The folks in…

Why Electoral Waves Are Rarer in a Presidential Year

by Stuart Rothenberg March 6, 2015 · 1:59 PM EST

Six months before the 2014 midterm elections, Arkansas Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor looked to be in serious trouble, as did the Democratic-held Montana Senate seat. Even more troubling for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the party’s seats in strongly red states like West Virginia and South Dakota resembled lost…