Senate News & Analysis

In Campaign Ads, ‘Week One’ Is Still Months Away

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 19, 2014 · 3:53 PM EDT

It can feel like the 2014 congressional races have been going on forever, so when a campaign strategist talks about “Week One,” it can be confusing that Week One is still actually four months away.

Obtaining and understanding television ad buys is becoming an increasingly important part of…

Mark Pryor: Still This Cycle’s Most Vulnerable Senator

by Stuart Rothenberg June 17, 2014 · 9:57 AM EDT

More than a year ago, I called Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark., this cycle’s most vulnerable senator. That hasn’t changed.

The longer I do this, the more transparent I try to be about my thinking about each race. So, this column sets out my view of the Arkansas…

Michelle Obama for Senate in 2016: Is It Even a Rumor?

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 16, 2014 · 9:00 AM EDT

The Michelle Obama for Senate in 2016 stories are classic examples of an out-of-control media narrative that is based on little hard evidence.

But it may also end up being a lesson on why it’s best not to dismiss rampant speculation.

The rumor that the first lady…

Senate Majority Still Hangs in the Balance

by Stuart Rothenberg June 6, 2014 · 4:00 PM EDT

Control of the Senate in 2014 is all about the arithmetic, and the numbers -- and history -- still favor the GOP.

Both South Dakota and West Virginia look all-but-certain to flip to the Republicans, with Montana still a very difficult lift for the Democrats.

That means…

2014 Senate Overview (June 6, 2014) Alabama - Kansas

June 6, 2014 · 3:59 PM EDT

ALABAMA -- Jeff Sessions (R), elected 1996 (52%), 2002 (59%) and 2008 (63%). The last Democratic Senate nominee to receive even 40 percent of the vote in Alabama was Roger Bedford nearly 20 years ago. Safe Republican.

ALASKA -- Mark Begich (D), elected 2008 (48%). August 26 primary.…

2014 Senate Overview (June 6, 2014) Kentucky - New Mexico

June 6, 2014 · 3:58 PM EDT

KENTUCKY -- Mitch McConnell (R), elected 1984 (50%), 1990 (52%), 1996 (55%), 2002 (65%), 2008 (53%). Senate Minority Leader McConnell beat primary challenger Matt Bevin surprisingly easily, and he will now turn his guns on Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, who gives Democrats their best chance of…

2014 Senate Overview (June 6, 2014) North Carolina - Wyoming

June 6, 2014 · 3:57 PM EDT

NORTH CAROLINA -- Kay Hagan (D), elected 2008 (53%). Given the GOP’s recent victories in the state, Hagan certainly knew that she would have a serious challenge. State House Speaker Thom Tillis won the Republican nomination without a runoff, allowing him to avoid further attacks and focus all his…

Why Do We Suddenly Care About Races for Lt. Governor?

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 6, 2014 · 9:50 AM EDT

The office of lieutenant governor is so important that five states don’t even have one, yet that hasn’t stopped the national political media from treating some contests for the office as crucial indicators of something.

In the recent primary runoff in Texas, anti-establishment conservative state Sen. Dan Patrick…

Thad Cochran’s Mississippi

by Stuart Rothenberg June 3, 2014 · 9:42 AM EDT

CLEVELAND, Miss. — The rain pounded the Mississippi Delta for the better part of three days late last week, but the nasty weather and a hard-fought primary contest didn’t stop Sen. Thad Cochran from attending the Delta Council’s annual event on May 30 on the Delta State University campus.…

Oregon Senate: National Republicans Get Their Nominee for Potential Race

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 28, 2014 · 5:00 PM EDT

Republican strategists believe they have expanded the field of competitive Senate races to include Oregon. But only time will tell whether the Beaver State is really in play and whether Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) is indeed vulnerable.

There really was a lot riding on the May 20 GOP…