Before the cycle began, South Carolina Republican Lindsey Graham was probably near the top of any list of senators who might get a serious challenge from the Right. And a couple weeks ago, the Charleston County Republican Party opted to censure Graham for not being Republican enough.
But…
Arkansas Senate. The GOP nomination was never in doubt considering Rep. Tom Cotton is a rare Republican candidate who has brought together the establishment and anti-establishment wings of his party. But Democrats are increasingly bullish on Sen. Mark Pryor’s chances of winning re-election. Based on internal Democratic polling and…
Most readers know that Nathan Gonzales and I, along with our friends from Roll Call, interview at least 150 candidates for Congress every election cycle. I have been doing it for many years.
Not every hopeful passes through our offices, of course, and many candidates have won elections…
I am not at all certain who or what Ben Sasse is. I interviewed him in February, and heard him speak to a large, sympathetic group not long after that. And, of course, I’ve seen him interviewed by others. But I still don’t have a handle on what kind…
My new statistical model of the open Wisconsin Senate seat suggests that Democrats now have only a 54.496 percent chance of holding the seat. That’s a dramatic change from just three weeks ago, when my model showed them with a 55.501 percent chance.
The change results from three…
Michigan has a little bit of everything this cycle- - a competitive gubernatorial race, an open seat race for the U.S. Senate, Republican congressional primaries between insiders and outsiders, crowded Democratic primaries in safe seats and a couple of Republican incumbents who are vulnerable in the general election.
…
Florida’s 19th District. Businessman Curt Clawson won the special GOP primary and is the prohibitive favorite in the June special general election. The seat was open after GOP Rep. Trey Radel’s resignation.
Georgia Governor. Gov. Nathan Deal’s mishandling of the state’s winter storm response threw a bit of…
The Republican establishment is fighting back, but winning a few primaries this year won’t do much to end the insurgency from party purists. It only takes one general election loss by an establishment candidate to reignite the fire.
Observers see what they want to see in the results,…
State House Speaker Thom Tillis won the GOP nomination outright on Tuesday, setting up a general election match-up against Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in one of the top Senate races in the country. Even though Hagan’s polling numbers have been mediocre at best, we gave her a slight edge…
Who is winning the primary campaign war within the GOP between pragmatic conservatives and the anti-establishment wing of the party?
It’s a simple question, but it isn’t as easy to answer as you might think. Part of the problem is deciding which candidates and races are part of…
