Archive

Kentucky House: Republicans Battle to Replace Davis

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 20, 2012 · 11:57 AM EDT

Rep. Geoff Davis caught many of his fellow Republicans off-guard when he decided not to seek reelection to a fifth term, but Davis leaves behind one of the most Republican seats in Kentucky. Since his 4th District seat isn’t vulnerable to a Democratic takeover, the May 22 winner-take-all primary…

New Mexico 1: Democratic (Not-So) Civil War

by Jessica Taylor April 20, 2012 · 11:56 AM EDT

Once upon a time, the Albuquerque desert was home to one of the nation’s top political fights. This year, the heat’s being turned up in the 1st District Democratic primary, but it will likely fade after the June 5 primary as this once-battleground seat drops off the list of top GOP targets.

As…

Arkansas House: Razorback Red

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 20, 2012 · 11:55 AM EDT

With control of the governorship and the Legislature, Democrats were in prime position to take back at least a couple of seats they lost in 2010 in Arkansas.

But local Democratic cartographers didn’t see eye to eye with Democratic strategists in D.C. and drew a map that could allow Republicans…

2012 House Ratings (April 20, 2012)

April 20, 2012 · 11:54 AM EDT

Don’t Believe the Anti-Incumbent Narrative

by Stuart Rothenberg April 20, 2012 · 9:54 AM EDT

Though it probably won’t start for a few more days, the “anti-incumbent election” narrative will grow loud during the next few weeks, as a handful of Members of Congress find themselves in tough races. It won’t matter whether they are defeated in primaries or just squeeze through in tight, nasty…

Arizona 8 Special: Table Set for Giffords’ Seat

by Jessica Taylor April 18, 2012 · 11:59 AM EDT

The nominees are in place for the highly competitive Arizona special election to replace former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D), as 2010 GOP nominee Jesse Kelly cruised to an expected primary win on Tuesday. 

Kelly took 36 percent of the vote. His next closest competitor was retired Air Force…

Can Mitt Romney Return to ‘Referendum’ Message?

by Stuart Rothenberg April 18, 2012 · 9:49 AM EDT

Three months ago, Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney had a very clear message: President Barack Obama had failed to turn the economy around or create jobs and, therefore, didn’t deserve another term.

It was a succinct, uncomplicated message, based on easily accessible unemployment and…

The Vacant Center Aisle Caucus?

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 11, 2012 · 10:05 AM EDT

Republican strategists certainly weren’t pleased with Illinois Rep. Timothy Johnson’s post-primary retirement decision, but why was a Democratic Member of Congress from almost 1,000 miles away so upset?

“Shedding a tear for my Center Aisle Caucus co-chair,” Rep. Christopher Murphy (D-Conn.)…

Taking A Different Look At The Gender Gap

by Stuart Rothenberg April 10, 2012 · 11:58 AM EDT

I have found over the years that when a narrative works its way into the collective wisdom, there is no way of changing it. So my goal here is quite modest: to get at least a handful of people to pause, take a deep breath and simply chew over the data a bit before using it to draw unshakable…