In Democratic Race, What Tier Should John Edwards Be in?

by Stuart Rothenberg March 29, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

Now that former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards has announced that his wife is once again fighting cancer but that he remains in the presidential race, it’s time to ask the obvious question: Is the Democratic race a two-person contest between Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama…

Should Democrats Go After the Evangelical Vote?

by Stuart Rothenberg March 26, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

For some Democrats, including political strategists Mara Vanderslice and Eric Sapp of Common Good Strategies, the answer to whether Democrats should pursue evangelical voters is a no-brainer.

Vanderslice, the founder of the political consulting firm that seeks to help Democratic officeholders…

New Print Edition: California 11 & New York 29

March 23, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

The new March 23, 2007 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and…

Was ’06 a Starting Point for Democrats or Was It Their High-water Mark?

by Stuart Rothenberg March 22, 2007 · 12:10 AM EDT

Click here for the accompanying Close Calls chart.

We are just a couple of months into the 2008 election cycle, but already House targets for next year are being thrown about wildly, with the usual supportive demographic and electoral data.

Unfortunately, all numbers aren’t equally useful in…

The Impact of “Hillary 1984”

March 21, 2007 · 12:10 AM EDT

Nobody should be surprised by the overreaction to the Hillary Clinton/Apple pseudo TV spot posted on YouTube. Reporters (and political consultants) simply love anything new and creative, even if its political impact is non-existent.

The ad, fashioned after an Apple ad from 1984, got tons of airtime…

Want a Presidential Nomination? Then Run for It!

by Stuart Rothenberg March 19, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

Ladies and gentlemen, tonight the role of Hamlet, previously played by former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo (D), will be played by Chuck Hagel.

After a few days of frenzied speculation about whether Hagel would seek the Republican nomination for president, the Nebraska Senator announced on Monday…

A Presidential Race on Speed

March 18, 2007 · 11:58 PM EDT

The following are excerpts from an op-ed piece in the Sunday, March 18, 2007 in the Los Angeles Times.

At this point in past presidential cycles, much of the campaign activity would be going on behind the scenes. Operatives would be focused on raising money, putting together state organizations in…

GOP Presidential Race Looks Unpredictably Unpredictable in ’08

by Stuart Rothenberg March 15, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

Each presidential election cycle is unique, but you can count on certain developments every time. There are candidate boomlets, questions about the frontrunners, talk of deadlocked conventions and multiple scenarios of various credibility. Scenarios are a lot like opinions or blogs — pretty much…

For the Thousandth Time: Don’t Call Them ‘Push Polls’

by Stuart Rothenberg March 12, 2007 · 12:10 AM EDT

I probably sound like a broken record, but I’ve had it with people who still don’t know the difference between political polls and advocacy telephone calls.

Polls are methodologically rigorous public opinion surveys of generally 500 to 1,000 people intended to learn about and measure voters’…

New Print Edition: Florida 16 & North Carolina 8

March 9, 2007 · 3:44 PM EST

The new March 9, 2007 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. Here’s a sample of the stories in this issue. To subscribe, just go to the website and click on the Google Checkout button to pay by credit card or you can send in a check.

Florida 16: Instant…