Archive

How High the Wave? Don’t Just Think 1994; Think 1974, 1958, 1982

by Stuart Rothenberg October 26, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

With only a couple of weeks until Election Day, we know there will be a Democratic wave on Nov. 7. And we can be fairly certain that by historical standards it will be high – possibly very high. But we still don’t know how many Republicans once considered safe will be swept out of office.

The…

Audio: Oct. 5 Roll Call Election Preview with Rothenberg & Kondracke

October 24, 2006 · 11:42 AM EDT

Now you can listen to Stuart Rothenberg and Morton Kondracke’s Oct. 5 preview of the elections, courtesy of Roll Call newspaper.

Linking Iraq to the War on Terror Has Downside for GOP

by Stuart Rothenberg October 23, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

President Bush and his allies have spent months trying to drum up support for the administration’s Iraq policies by arguing that the Iraq War isn’t merely an isolated battle but rather the front line in a much larger war against terrorism.

Of course, that’s not a new strategy. They did the same…

2006 House Ratings

October 20, 2006 · 4:31 PM EDT
2006 Rothenberg Political Report
House Ratings


For race-by-race analysis and explanation of the ratings, you must be a subscriber to the print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report. For a subscription form, click here. Current Rothenberg Political Report projection: Democratic gain of…

2006 Senate Ratings

October 20, 2006 · 4:28 PM EDT
2006 Rothenberg Political Report
Senate Ratings


For race-by-race analysis and explanation of the ratings, you must be a subscriber to the print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report. For a subscription form, click here. Current Rothenberg Political Report projection: Democratic gains…

2006 Gubernatorial Ratings

October 20, 2006 · 4:26 PM EDT
2006 Rothenberg Political Report
Governors Ratings


For race-by-race analysis and explanation of the ratings, you must be a subscriber to the print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report. For a subscription form, click here. Republicans currently hold a 28-22 advantage in governorships nationwide.…

Handicapping Long Shots and Late Shots

by Stuart Rothenberg October 19, 2006 · 12:01 AM EDT

If you make your living as a political analyst and handicapper (and the odds are very good that you don’t), you’re facing an interesting dilemma right about now. Do you add every possible House upset race that you can think of to your list of competitive races, or do you keep your list as small…

Ohio Senate: RNC Launching New Statewide Buy

October 17, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

Contrary to published reports that the Republican National Committee has decided to “write off” the Ohio Senate race, the RNC is about to begin a new, statewide TV buy in Ohio on behalf of the candidacy of Sen. Mike DeWine (R-OH).

The buy, which costs in excess of $1 million, is scheduled to last…

The Fight for Congress: I’ve Seen This Movie Before

by Stuart Rothenberg October 16, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

Three weeks ago, some people were talking about a Republican surge that never really existed. Now, others mistakenly are talking as if the page scandal surrounding ex-Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) hasfundamentally changed the election cycle. It hasn’t. What we are seeing, increasingly, is 1994, with…

Kansas 2: Dueling Polls, Differing Perspectives

October 13, 2006 · 5:33 PM EDT

Two recent Democratic polls show Cong. Jim Ryun (R) in a surprisingly tight contest in the 2nd District of Kansas. But Republicans are countering with numbers of their own.

2004 nominee Nancy Boyda (D) is taking on the congressman, hoping to avenge her 56%-41% loss to Ryun last cycle. An October…