The Jefferson Raid: Are Republicans Blowing Another One?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 1, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

Whatever you think of the constitutional issues surrounding the FBI raid on the Capitol Hill office of embattled Rep. William Jefferson (D-La.), there is little doubt that, politically, Republicans are blowing another opportunity.

To most Americans, Jefferson appears to have taken a bribe.…

Evidence Grows of Incumbent Vulnerability in House Races

by Stuart Rothenberg May 30, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

While there is plenty of evidence that voters are dissatisfied with the president, Congress and the direction of the nation, I am finally seeing a significant amount of evidence at the local level — in polling data and in recent primary election results — that the national mood is having an…

Rothenberg Predicts Greater Gains for House Democrats

May 26, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

National and district-level numbers continue to raise red flags for Republicans around the country. In past cycles, the question was whether Democrats could nationalize races and pick off enough Republican seats to get to 218 seats — and a majority. Now, the environment has already been…

Heeee’s Back: The Fall and Rise of Sen. Trent Lott

by Stuart Rothenberg May 25, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

Cleveland, Miss. — Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.), surrounded by well-wishers and smiling faces, looked and sounded relaxed 10 days ago as he headed toward the stage of the Bologna Performing Arts Center on the campus of Delta State University.

He was having fun, or at least it certainly looked that…

Winners & Losers: Week of May 15-19

May 23, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT


Patrick Murphy (D). This is one Iraq War veteran who actually performed close to the expectations. Murphy defeated former Bucks County Commissioner Andy Warren, who used to be a Republican, 65%-35% in the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania’s 8th District. The Philadelphia suburbs are ripe…

Challenge to Lieberman Shows What’s Wrong With Politics

by Stuart Rothenberg May 22, 2006 · 12:03 AM EDT

I was struck by a two-sentence comment from Connecticut Senate hopeful Ned Lamont (D) that appeared a couple of weeks ago in a Washington Post article by Shailagh Murray.

Lamont, who is challenging Sen. Joe Lieberman for the Democratic Senate nomination in the Nutmeg State, was warned by a…

The Empty Threats of Evangelicals

May 19, 2006 · 12:05 AM EDT

President Bush is an easy target these days. Two-thirds of Americans disapprove of the job he is doing and even Bush’s loyal supporters are taking the opportunity to pile-on. Dr. James Dobson of Focus on the Family and other evangelical leaders are criticizing the president for inaction on social…

New Print Edition: Virginia Senate, Pennsylvania 7, & New House Ratings

May 18, 2006 · 5:10 PM EDT

The new May 18, 2006 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. (Click here for subscription information.)

Virginia Senate: Common Goal, Common Wealth
By Nathan L. Gonzales

Democrats in Virginia and the nation’s capital are determined to re-take the majority in…

Pennsylvania 7: Shopping for Opportunities

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 18, 2006 · 12:36 PM EDT

Democrats are targeting Republican districts all over the country, but a couple of geographic areas could be the key to Democratic success on Election Night in November.

Connecticut is one obvious state with three vulnerable Republican incumbents, but just a few hours south, Democrats are…

Virginia Senate: Common Goal, Common Wealth

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 18, 2006 · 11:30 AM EDT

Democrats in Virginia and the nation’s capital are determined to re-take the majority in the U.S. Senate, and increasingly they are focusing on a new target: Sen. George Allen (R) of Virginia. Democrats realize that defeating Allen would not only increase their chances of getting to 51 seats on…