Montana Senate: Is Conrad Burns Headed for Defeat This Fall?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 26, 2006 · 12:01 AM EDT

Once burned, twice shy: That’s simply another way of saying that I’m more cautious about handicapping the Montana Senate race than I am other Senate contests.

Just days before the 2000 elections, my newsletter moved GOP Sen. Conrad Burns from “Toss-up” to “Lean Takeover.” That rating change was…

Michigan Governor: Falling Star- What Ever Happened to Jennifer Granholm?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 22, 2006 · 12:10 AM EDT

If only Canadian-born Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) had been born in the United States, many state and national political commentators said a couple of years ago, she might well have become the Democratic nominee for vice president in 2008 or the party’s White House candidate in 2012.

Webb Victory Poses Dilemma for Warner

June 20, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

Former Secretary of the Navy James Webb (D) won the Democratic nomination in Virginia and will take on Sen. George Allen (R-VA) in the general election. But former Gov. Mark Warner (D) may have a tough decision to make in the coming months.

Webb rode to victory on the backs of Democratic voters in…

Bill Richardson: Looking Like a Go for 2008

by Stuart Rothenberg June 19, 2006 · 12:01 AM EDT

Officially, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) is focused on his November re-election race, even though it’s expected to be relatively easy. And as chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, Richardson also hopes to lead his party to a gain of at least a few more governorships.

But some…

New Print Edition: Missouri Senate, Connecticut 5, & Governors Ratings

June 16, 2006 · 3:21 PM EDT

The new June 16, 2006 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. (Click here for subscription information.)

Missouri Senate: Guilt By Association?
By Nathan L. Gonzales

If you look up “bellwether” in the dictionary, you might see the state of Missouri in the…

Good News Finds the Republicans. But for How Long?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 15, 2006 · 12:04 AM EDT

California’s 50th district special election. The death of terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq. The foiling of a major terrorist plot in Canada. A cooling of tensions over Iran. The unemployment rate down to 4.6 percent.

After a 17-month string of virtually unbroken bad news,…

California 50: Neither Party Should be Too Comfortable with the Results

June 13, 2006 · 9:59 AM EDT

Republicans held the levees in San Diego County, but nationally the storm is far from over.

Former Congressman Brian Bilbray’s victory in Tuesday’s special election was a costly but necessary victory for a Republican Party searching for any sliver of good news. And conversely, Democrat Francine…

California Blues: A Bit of a Downer for the Democrats

by Stuart Rothenberg June 12, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

That sigh you heard Wednesday morning coming from national Democrats wasn’t the roar of approval and satisfaction that they hoped for. The results are in from California, and the news was surprisingly good for Republicans.

Former and future Rep. Brian Bilbray drew just under 50 percent of the…

Vote Likely to Strain Falwell-McCain Marriage

June 9, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

The recent marriage of two former political foes may already be over. Or at least the relationship got a bit more complicated with Wednesday’s Senate vote on the Marriage Protection Amendment.

Arizona Sen. John McCain (R) received plenty of attention when he accepted the Rev. Jerry Falwell’s…

California’s 50th: Worst Nightmare or a Bit of Relief for the GOP?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 8, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

[Editor's Note: This column was originally published on Monday, before the election.]

Campaign strategists in both parties are holding their breath as the special election in California’s 50th district comes down to the wire. Neither party is expressing confidence in a race that increasingly…