President News & Analysis

Obama’s Electoral College Outlook Depends on His Opponent

by Stuart Rothenberg October 21, 2011 · 11:57 PM EDT

A few weeks ago, I wrote a column in Roll Call about President Barack Obama’s Electoral College outlook, noting that “generic” projections weren’t particularly helpful because, to a considerable extent, presidential elections are about the candidates.

My initial estimate of a contest pitting the president against former Massachusetts…

For Some GOPers, It’s Still Anyone but Mitt Romney

by Stuart Rothenberg October 21, 2011 · 2:13 PM EDT

For former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the GOP presidential campaign is looking like a simple matter of survival.

With a substantial chunk of the Republican Party appearing unenthusiastic about embracing him, Romney now finds himself in the position of having to “hang around” in the GOP race while…

Why Is There So Much Mud in South Carolina?

by Stuart Rothenberg October 19, 2011 · 12:52 PM EDT

When South Carolina state Rep. Thad Viers (R) came in for an interview recently, I wasn’t sure what to expect.

I knew that he was a successful, young officeholder who surely was one of the favorites to win in the Palmetto State’s new Congressional district. I knew that…

This Is Not Your Father’s Democratic Party

by Stuart Rothenberg October 12, 2011 · 9:30 AM EDT

For anyone old enough to remember Bucky Dent’s memorable home run in the 1978 Yankees-Red Sox playoff, the current makeup and political strategy of the Democratic Party has to seem very odd.

No, this isn’t your grandfather’s (or even your father’s) Democratic Party, and while that was an…

Electoral Vote Advantage Goes to Mitt Romney

by Stuart Rothenberg October 7, 2011 · 10:56 AM EDT

While national public opinion polls are fun to examine, the real action for handicappers, of course, is in the Electoral College.

But “generic” electoral vote projections are only of limited value because elections are ultimately about the candidates. GOP Reps. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) and Ron Paul (Texas), for…

Another Boomlet for an Unknown Republican

by Stuart Rothenberg October 4, 2011 · 10:40 AM EDT

Like a heroin addict who needs his next needle, the national media have once again whipped themselves up into a frenzy about a noncandidate. This time, it’s Chris Christie, the Republican governor of New Jersey.

Christie, we are being told, is listening to pleas to enter the presidential…

Barack Obama, Predictions and the Red Sox

by Stuart Rothenberg September 27, 2011 · 9:19 AM EDT

As a handicapper who uses current circumstances to construct scenarios about the future, I know full well how unpredictable tomorrow is. In fact, I repeatedly warn readers and listeners that unexpected events can change our lives and our politics overnight.

In the political sphere, the standing of President…

Should Obama Run Against Congress?

by Stuart Rothenberg September 21, 2011 · 12:10 PM EDT

Congress’ job approval stinks. Everyone agrees about that.

It really doesn’t matter whether Congress’ job approval is 12 percent (last week’s CBS News/New York Times poll), 13 percent (August’s NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey) or 15 percent (recent Gallup and CNN polling).

Running against Congress seems like…

Will GOP Choose John Kerry or Howard Dean?

by Stuart Rothenberg September 16, 2011 · 8:59 AM EDT

The stages at upcoming Republican presidential debates will remain crowded, at least for a while, but it has already become clear that the GOP race is a contest between Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Supporters of other hopefuls will complain that this assessment…

Can Small RNC Rule Change Affect GOP Race?

by Stuart Rothenberg September 12, 2011 · 12:00 PM EDT

The devil, people say, is in the details, and there is no better example of that than a relatively small change in the rules of the Republican Party, which could end up having a big effect on the GOP’s presidential nominating process and even on the general election.