President News & Analysis

New Iowa Caucuses GOP Poll: Both Accurate and Meaningless

by Stuart Rothenberg August 16, 2010 · 3:17 PM EDT

Can a poll be both correct and totally, utterly meaningless? Absolutely, and the new Group LLC survey conducted by Voter Consumer Research is a great example.

GOP pollster Jan van Lohuizen’s firm is one of those survey research firms that is widely trusted by political handicappers and…

In the Delta, Everyone’s Buzzing About Barbour

by Stuart Rothenberg June 10, 2010 · 8:59 AM EDT

GREENVILLE, Miss. — Politically interested folks in the Mississippi Delta spent the last few days of May wondering about whether Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln will survive today’s Democratic runoff against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter and whether Democratic Rep. Travis Childers of Mississippi’s 1st district can win in a Republican…

When Campaigns Lie, What Should the Voters Do?

by Stuart Rothenberg September 29, 2008 · 12:05 AM EDT

Now that both campaigns have lost all of their credibility by distorting each other’s records and agendas, where does the 2008 presidential contest stand?

I don’t have data on this, but I’m willing to bet that at this point in the race most voters don’t believe…

It Ain’t Over Till the Fat Lady Sings ... and She Hasn’t Yet

March 10, 2008 · 12:05 AM EDT
By Stuart Rothenberg

OK, it’s official: The Democratic race for president is officially screwed up. Forget the silly candidate spinning. With any luck, you weren’t listening when Illinois Sen. Barack Obama’s operatives told you what New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton needed to do in order to win or…

Did Edwards’ Slip Help Clinton in New Hampshire?

January 9, 2008 · 8:46 AM EST
By Stuart Rothenberg

While some will suggest that Sen. Hillary Clinton’s New Hampshire victory can be traced to her emotional comments shortly before the primary, and others will credit Bill Clinton, there is some evidence to suggest that the collapse of the John Edwards campaign in the Granite State…

The Bush Factor in the Upcoming Presidential Election

by Stuart Rothenberg November 11, 2007 · 11:05 PM EST

If there is one question that, when answered, should help us anticipate the 2008 results, it is likely to be this one: How much of an impact will President Bush have on voters’ decisions next year?

Unfortunately, history isn’t much of a guide, since there is just a…

GOP’s Race Problem Doesn’t Always Include Debates

by Stuart Rothenberg November 7, 2007 · 11:05 PM EST

A shot was recently fired across the GOP’s bow about the cancellation of the scheduled Nov. 4 presidential debate co-sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus Institute and Fox News, and you can bet more shots will be fired over the next few months.

Writing less than a week…

It’s Still Clinton & Romney in New Saint Anselm Survey

October 25, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

A new poll conducted by SRBI Research of New York City for the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College shows New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton holding a commanding 21-point lead in the state’s Democratic primary and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with a smaller, but still…

Edwards, Clinton and Questions About Their Electability in ’08

by Stuart Rothenberg October 18, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

For weeks now, the campaign of former Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) has been hammering away about New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s greatest alleged vulnerability: her electability. It’s a good strategy, at least in theory, since Democratic voters will not nominate someone for president who they think will lose…