President News & Analysis

Will GOP Risk Goldwater II With Newt Gingrich in 2012?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 25, 2012 · 11:20 AM EST

In 1964, an angry Republican Party threw caution to the wind and nominated conservative Arizona Sen. Barry Goldwater for president. Eight years later, Democrats rallied behind South Dakota Sen. George McGovern, an unapologetic liberal.

In each case, the party’s rank and file embraced what it thought was a…

Mitt McCain — The GOP’s Strange Replay of 2008

by Stuart Rothenberg January 18, 2012 · 9:20 AM EST

The combination of Mitt Romney’s 16-point victory in New Hampshire and his rousing election night speech launched the former Massachusetts governor toward South Carolina with the kind of old-fashioned momentum that any candidate for high office would love.

Of course, Romney’s competitors are not without their assets. Former…

South Carolina Puts Perfect Record on the Line

by Jessica Taylor January 13, 2012 · 10:57 AM EST

Since 1980, South Carolina has played the decisive role in the GOP presidential contest, flawlessly picking the eventual nominee between the winners of the Iowa and New Hampshire contests.

Now, as former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney rolls into the Palmetto State having notched historic wins in both states,…

Can Mitt Romney Meet New Hampshire Expectations?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 10, 2012 · 9:19 AM EST

Welcome aboard the weird electoral expectations train. Next stop: New Hampshire.Oddly, some observers interpreted the narrowest of wins in Iowa by former

Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as a loss — a strange conclusion given that six months earlier, almost every veteran political analyst and handicapper was saying that…

For Mitt Romney, It’s Still Divide and Conquer

by Stuart Rothenberg January 3, 2012 · 9:48 AM EST

“Romney surges in Iowa on issue of electability” proclaimed the odd headline on the front page of Thursday’s Washington Post, citing a late December CNN/Time/ORC International poll showing Mitt Romney at 25 percent, leading Rep. Ron Paul (22 percent) and former Sen. Rick Santorum (16 percent) in the important…

Time for Rothenberg Annual Year-End Awards

by Stuart Rothenberg December 21, 2011 · 8:15 AM EST

Each year I try to give my own awards for the best and the worst, the silliest and the oddest. There were plenty of strange developments this year — heck, the entire Republican race for president has bordered on the bizarre — so there is more than enough material.…

Newt’s Surge: How High, How Long?

by Stuart Rothenberg December 16, 2011 · 2:58 PM EST

The rise of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is as real as it is unexpected.

Unlike Rick Perry’s surge upon entering the GOP race or Herman Cain’s surge after Perry stalled, Gingrich’s rise in the polls is different because his standing in the party is different than those…

Can Mitt Romney Conquer Newt Gingrich, His Own Ceiling?

by Stuart Rothenberg December 16, 2011 · 9:38 AM EST

Mitt Romney’s ceiling in Iowa doesn’t look like glass. It looks like reinforced concrete.

Even after three conservative candidates rose and fell in polling in Iowa, the former Massachusetts governor still can’t get above the 25 percent mark in the crucial early caucus state. “That really says something…

Another Year of Prognostication Ups and Downs

by Stuart Rothenberg December 14, 2011 · 11:37 AM EST

“Regrets, I’ve had a few,” Frank Sinatra sings in one of his signature songs, “My Way,” and that should be a sentiment that every political analyst, handicapper and forecaster feels as he or she looks back on a body of work from the previous 12 months.

Few people…

Do Democrats Face More Trouble From Occupy Wall Street?

by Stuart Rothenberg December 9, 2011 · 10:50 AM EST

It’s hard to say exactly when the Occupy Wall Street movement fizzled, but so far it has failed to become the politically potent force that the tea party was during the 2010 election cycle.

But even if the Occupy movement has not yet broadened its appeal or redefined…