President News & Analysis

Next in Line (Apparently) for GOP: Newt Gingrich

by Stuart Rothenberg November 16, 2011 · 10:39 AM EST

OK, I give up. I don’t know what the heck is going to happen in the Republican race.

Actually, the fundamentals of the race haven’t changed much, if you think about it. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney continues to appeal to about one-quarter of his party, with the…

For Bob McDonnell, VP Talk Won’t Go Away

by Stuart Rothenberg November 9, 2011 · 9:24 AM EST

If, as many Republicans hope and most GOP political operatives seem to expect, Virginia Republicans win enough seats tonight to take control of the state’s Senate, you will hear another round of talk about Gov. Bob McDonnell as a potential running mate for the Republican nominee in 2012.

Would Cain Be Leading the Race if He Were White?

by Stuart Rothenberg November 4, 2011 · 9:00 AM EDT

Longtime readers of this column may get the feeling that they have seen this headline before.

Three and a half years ago, I wrote a column with a similar title after former Rep. Geraldine Ferraro (D-N.Y.), a supporter of presidential hopeful Hillary Rodham Clinton, asserted that Barack Obama…

Obama’s Electoral College Outlook Depends on His Opponent

by Stuart Rothenberg October 21, 2011 · 11:57 PM EDT

A few weeks ago, I wrote a column in Roll Call about President Barack Obama’s Electoral College outlook, noting that “generic” projections weren’t particularly helpful because, to a considerable extent, presidential elections are about the candidates.

My initial estimate of a contest pitting the president against former Massachusetts…

For Some GOPers, It’s Still Anyone but Mitt Romney

by Stuart Rothenberg October 21, 2011 · 2:13 PM EDT

For former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the GOP presidential campaign is looking like a simple matter of survival.

With a substantial chunk of the Republican Party appearing unenthusiastic about embracing him, Romney now finds himself in the position of having to “hang around” in the GOP race while…

Why Is There So Much Mud in South Carolina?

by Stuart Rothenberg October 19, 2011 · 12:52 PM EDT

When South Carolina state Rep. Thad Viers (R) came in for an interview recently, I wasn’t sure what to expect.

I knew that he was a successful, young officeholder who surely was one of the favorites to win in the Palmetto State’s new Congressional district. I knew that…

This Is Not Your Father’s Democratic Party

by Stuart Rothenberg October 12, 2011 · 9:30 AM EDT

For anyone old enough to remember Bucky Dent’s memorable home run in the 1978 Yankees-Red Sox playoff, the current makeup and political strategy of the Democratic Party has to seem very odd.

No, this isn’t your grandfather’s (or even your father’s) Democratic Party, and while that was an…

Electoral Vote Advantage Goes to Mitt Romney

by Stuart Rothenberg October 7, 2011 · 10:56 AM EDT

While national public opinion polls are fun to examine, the real action for handicappers, of course, is in the Electoral College.

But “generic” electoral vote projections are only of limited value because elections are ultimately about the candidates. GOP Reps. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) and Ron Paul (Texas), for…

Another Boomlet for an Unknown Republican

by Stuart Rothenberg October 4, 2011 · 10:40 AM EDT

Like a heroin addict who needs his next needle, the national media have once again whipped themselves up into a frenzy about a noncandidate. This time, it’s Chris Christie, the Republican governor of New Jersey.

Christie, we are being told, is listening to pleas to enter the presidential…

Barack Obama, Predictions and the Red Sox

by Stuart Rothenberg September 27, 2011 · 9:19 AM EDT

As a handicapper who uses current circumstances to construct scenarios about the future, I know full well how unpredictable tomorrow is. In fact, I repeatedly warn readers and listeners that unexpected events can change our lives and our politics overnight.

In the political sphere, the standing of President…