President News & Analysis

Newt’s Surge: How High, How Long?

by Stuart Rothenberg December 16, 2011 · 2:58 PM EST

The rise of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is as real as it is unexpected.

Unlike Rick Perry’s surge upon entering the GOP race or Herman Cain’s surge after Perry stalled, Gingrich’s rise in the polls is different because his standing in the party is different than those…

Can Mitt Romney Conquer Newt Gingrich, His Own Ceiling?

by Stuart Rothenberg December 16, 2011 · 9:38 AM EST

Mitt Romney’s ceiling in Iowa doesn’t look like glass. It looks like reinforced concrete.

Even after three conservative candidates rose and fell in polling in Iowa, the former Massachusetts governor still can’t get above the 25 percent mark in the crucial early caucus state. “That really says something…

Another Year of Prognostication Ups and Downs

by Stuart Rothenberg December 14, 2011 · 11:37 AM EST

“Regrets, I’ve had a few,” Frank Sinatra sings in one of his signature songs, “My Way,” and that should be a sentiment that every political analyst, handicapper and forecaster feels as he or she looks back on a body of work from the previous 12 months.

Few people…

Do Democrats Face More Trouble From Occupy Wall Street?

by Stuart Rothenberg December 9, 2011 · 10:50 AM EST

It’s hard to say exactly when the Occupy Wall Street movement fizzled, but so far it has failed to become the politically potent force that the tea party was during the 2010 election cycle.

But even if the Occupy movement has not yet broadened its appeal or redefined…

Fight for Senate Hinges on Six White House Battlegrounds

by Stuart Rothenberg December 7, 2011 · 9:48 AM EST

With 11 months to go until the 2012 elections, the fight for control of the Senate already seems to boil down to a dozen states.

If, as many believe, we have entered a new era of parliamentary-type voting, when ticket-splitting becomes increasingly rare and the top of the…

For Republicans, It’s a Matter of Head or Heart

by Stuart Rothenberg November 30, 2011 · 9:57 AM EST

Republicans are now chewing over their party’s potential presidential nominee for 2012, and a dramatic division has become apparent between GOP insiders and the grass roots. But it’s not primarily a difference of ideology, though there is an element of that. Instead, the split centers on electability.

So…

A Strange Way to Pick Presidential Candidates

by Stuart Rothenberg November 18, 2011 · 9:32 AM EST

Presidential debates, says NBC News Political Director and Chief White House Correspondent Chuck Todd, are now part of the winnowing process. Instead of going to a small state and wooing caucus-goers, Republican presidential hopefuls are going on national cable to see if they can resonate with the voters.

Next in Line (Apparently) for GOP: Newt Gingrich

by Stuart Rothenberg November 16, 2011 · 10:39 AM EST

OK, I give up. I don’t know what the heck is going to happen in the Republican race.

Actually, the fundamentals of the race haven’t changed much, if you think about it. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney continues to appeal to about one-quarter of his party, with the…

For Bob McDonnell, VP Talk Won’t Go Away

by Stuart Rothenberg November 9, 2011 · 9:24 AM EST

If, as many Republicans hope and most GOP political operatives seem to expect, Virginia Republicans win enough seats tonight to take control of the state’s Senate, you will hear another round of talk about Gov. Bob McDonnell as a potential running mate for the Republican nominee in 2012.

Would Cain Be Leading the Race if He Were White?

by Stuart Rothenberg November 4, 2011 · 9:00 AM EDT

Longtime readers of this column may get the feeling that they have seen this headline before.

Three and a half years ago, I wrote a column with a similar title after former Rep. Geraldine Ferraro (D-N.Y.), a supporter of presidential hopeful Hillary Rodham Clinton, asserted that Barack Obama…